ISI's warning to Pakistan and message to India

The recent terror attacks in Kashmir, including the assault on a bus carrying Hindu pilgrims and subsequent incidents, clearly indicate that ISI, the intelligence agency of Pakistan, is not in favor of Pakistani elected representatives who are praising Indians in parliament and advocating for improved relations between India and Pakistan. Leaders like Nawaz Sharif and his brother have consistently expressed a desire for better ties with India, largely driven by Pakistan's deep economic crisis. The country’s trade associations and businesses suggest importing raw materials and essential food supplies from India due to their quality and affordability, which can be transported efficiently by road.

Many people believe that fostering trade relations with India would benefit both countries and their citizens. However, ISI’s opposition stems from historical and strategic reasons. The long-standing conflict over Kashmir, marked by three wars between India and Pakistan, remains a significant point of contention. After the BJP-led Modi government in India scrapped Article 370, revoking Kashmir’s special status to integrate it more fully as an Indian state, there was a heavy military crackdown to quell protests and eliminate terrorism. Despite significant progress, the mission is not fully complete, with approximately 75% of the work done.

Pakistan's relationship with India has deteriorated, particularly after it claimed Kashmir as its territory due to its Muslim majority and sought to infiltrate terrorists to destabilize the region. In 2019, then Prime Minister Imran Khan adopted a hardline stance on Kashmir, aligning with ISI’s objective to restore its special status. However, as Khan gained more power, surpassing ISI and the military, they moved to remove him from power, leading to his imprisonment. The newly elected government is not aligned with ISI's stance on Kashmir, prompting ISI to send more terrorists into India as a warning.

This escalation jeopardizes the 2021 agreement to maintain peace along the Line of Control (LoC) between India and Pakistan. If the deal collapses, India may be forced to take punitive actions similar to the Balakot airstrikes, potentially triggering a retaliatory response from Pakistan. Such a scenario would reignite hostilities along the LoC, further destabilizing the region and exacerbating Pakistan’s economic woes, likely compelling it to seek financial aid from the IMF.